Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 21.881420 24.905462 28.163733 31.931469 36.164348 40.768925 46.153285
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 17.484647 21.599349 26.371859 32.300785 39.452423 47.783434 58.206242
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 14.891670 19.393987 24.868959 31.988091 40.969240 51.889221 66.136158
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 13.172229 17.971979 24.055973 32.288289 43.085438 56.706806 75.128355
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 12.135608 17.233002 23.927944 33.299309 46.001760 62.532654 85.572975
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 10.817157 15.948128 22.914940 32.979682 47.044655 65.881112 92.871928
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 9.286409 14.194809 21.075398 31.319999 46.057823 66.338541 96.167848
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 8.714064 13.748947 21.006627 32.100626 48.467529 71.524950 106.210258
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.230560 13.379064 20.997423 32.932550 50.958274 76.911787 116.775142
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 7.545343 12.631945 20.355503 32.751170 51.907266 80.080583 124.238833
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 6.876390 11.846277 19.583744 32.294754 52.377096 82.520866 130.691968
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 6.388535 11.307177 19.147339 32.312092 53.545733 86.029222 138.883317
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 6.024997 10.954252 18.997171 32.798130 55.516495 90.927196 149.571997
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 5.641055 10.533505 18.703334 33.025109 57.078741 95.264865 159.610295
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 5.206671 9.983079 18.143942 32.755054 57.783786 98.239239 167.572750
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 4.910492 9.652320 17.930037 33.045692 59.419619 102.768523 178.237187
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 4.759689 9.573522 18.145144 34.084235 62.368461 109.574396 192.945554
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 4.411941 9.094731 17.611025 33.755816 62.922513 112.395822 201.104410
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 3.902348 8.260297 16.368116 32.060282 60.957675 110.828734 201.704359
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 3.773947 8.163421 16.482748 32.857876 63.485263 117.086325 216.039077
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 3.659689 8.084770 16.623892 33.708106 66.145027 123.683304 231.243747
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 3.427339 7.744044 16.235674 33.522730 66.872591 126.881892 240.559194
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 3.181370 7.353599 15.721389 33.056311 67.037308 129.062116 248.122427